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Since September 23rd 2005, the PGNiG stock has been listed in the continuous trading system of the main market on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The issue price in the Company’s public offering was PLN 2.98. In 2017, PGNiG shares were included in the following indices: WIG, WIG20, WIG30, WIG-Poland, RESPECT Index, WIGdiv, and WIG-PALIWA (sectoral index).

Performance of PGNiG shares vs WSE indices

Index / PGNiG stock price*

Value
as at
Dec 31 2016

Value
as at
Dec 31 2017

Value
low
in 2017

Value
high
in 2017

PGNiG’s weight
in the index
as at Dec 31 2017

WIG 51,754 pkt 63,746 pkt 51,908 pkt 65,734 pkt 2.95%
WIG20 1,948 pkt 2,461 pkt 1,957 pkt 2,552 pkt 4.55%
WIG30 2,243 pkt 2,825 pkt 2,249 pkt 2,932 pkt 4.23%
WIG-Poland 52,584 pkt 65,184 pkt 52,741 pkt 67,224 pkt 3.02%
RESPECT Index 2,516 pkt 3,078 pkt 2,525 pkt 3,297 pkt 8.23%
WIGdiv 1,040 pkt 1,214 pkt 1,043 pkt 1,278 pkt 9.45%
WIG-Paliwa 5,669 pkt 7,140 pkt 5,432 pkt 8,679 pkt 21.68%
PGNiG 5.63 zł 6.29 zł 5.19 zł 6.95 zł
Source: WSE, www.gpw.pl
*PGNiG stock price and index values based on closing prices, excluding the ex-dividend day effect.

The PGNiG share price movements ranged between -17% (the lowest closing price of PLN 5.19 on January 20th 2017) to +12% (the highest closing price of PLN 6.95 on August 28th 2017) from the 2017 average closing price of PLN 6.23. To compare, fluctuations of the WIG20 index ranged between -16% (the lowest value of 1,956.72 points on January 2nd 2017) and +9% (the highest value of 2,551.78 points on October 11th 2017). Compared with 2016, both the PGNiG stock and WIG20 index fluctuated within a much wider range. The probable reasons behind their changes included:

  • Fluctuations in Brent crude prices – low prices towards the end of Q2 2017, with the minimum at USD 44.44 per barrel, followed by a rise from mid-Q3 2017 and a maximum in December with USD 71.20 per barrel (up 17.4% from the beginning of the period);
  • Drop in prices on PPX in Q2 2017 and a significant rise in Q4 2017 (the average spot price of gas on PPX in 2017 was 9% higher than in 2016);
  • Ongoing deregulation of the gas market in Poland.

In the first quarter of 2017, the PGNiG stock slid to the year’s low of PLN 5.19 (on January 20th 2017). The most important day in Q1 2017 for PGNiG stock price was February 16th. After the publication of very favourable, from the perspective of market participants, operating result estimates for Q4 2016, the trading volume of PGNiG shares soared to its highest level in 2017. At the close of trade on February 16th 2017, PGNiG stock was priced at PLN 5.85, up by more than 5%. The second major event that occurred in Q1 2017 was the announcement of the PGNiG Group Strategy for 2017−2022 with an Outlook until 2026. With the second largest trading volume in 2017, PGNiG share price retreated by more than 2%. Some investors and analysts were sceptical about the Strategy’s assumption regarding the estimated EBITDA to be earned in 2017–2022, given the relatively strong rise in capex. Nonetheless, in Q1 2017 PGNiG share price went up by over 6% (closing price on March 31st 2017 compared with the closing price on January 2nd 2017).

Q2 2017 saw another rally in PGNiG stock. Investors appreciated the earnings guidance published on April 20th. This event sparked an upward trend in the stock price, which reached PLN 6.57 on May 4th 2017 (the quarter’s maximum). However, just two weeks later, on May 18th 2017, the closing price fell back to PLN 6.08. This change was mainly due to the general market factors – over the same period WIG20, the Polish blue-chip index, also dropped considerably (down nearly 4% from May 4th to May 18th, based on the closing prices). On June 28th 2017, the Annual General Meeting of PGNiG passed a resolution to distribute profit for 2016. The dividend amount was PLN 1.156bn (PLN 0.20 per share).

The upward trend seen for most of Q3 2017 ended with an all-year high of PLN 6.95 on August 28th 2017. On July 19th, PGNiG published estimated operating results pointing to some positive factors, such as a rise in the volume of gas sold (beneficial to the Trade and Storage and Distribution segments). On the downside, investors noted a relatively low level of hydrocarbon production in Poland. Ultimately, at the close of trade on July 20th 2017, the stock price dropped by almost 2%, to PLN 6.61. The price of PGNiG shares rose again to PLN 6.83 on August 31st, mainly as a result of a positive reaction to, among other things, the expected impact of amendments to the Act on Stocks and the possibility of a favourable resolution of the arbitration proceedings against Gazprom regarding the revision of the pricing formula (under the Yamal contract).

In Q2 2017, the PGNiG stock continued to recede and fell back to below PLN 6 (PLN 5.81 at the close of trading on December 21st 2017).

On December 29th 2017 (the last trading day in the year), the PGNiG stock price closed at PLN 6.29. The price was nearly 111% above the issue price of 2005 and 65% above the closing price on the first day of listing. Factoring in the dividends of PLN 1.66 per share paid in 2005–2017, investors who acquired PGNiG shares at the closing price on the issue date and held them until the end of 2017 saw a profit of 134%.

PGNiG share price vs WIG20 and WIG-Paliwa indices

Source: WSE.
*Rebased to PGNiG share price.

Rates of return on WSE indices vs PGNiG stock in 2017 and from PGNiG’s IPO1

Index

Rate of return
in 2017

Rate of return from PGNiG’s IPO2 to Dec 31 2017

WIG 23.17% 91.87%
WIG20 26.35% 0.19%
WIG30 25.94% 11.25%³
WIG-Poland 23.96% 99.13%
WIG-Paliwa 25.72% 114.92%
RESPECT Index 22.34% 88.82%4
PGNiG 11.72% 65.03%5
Source: WSE, www.gpw.pl
1) Rates of return do not include dividends paid in 2005−2017.
2) Closing price on September 23rd 2005.
3) Data calculated in relation to the value of the WIG-30 index at the end of its first trading day (September 23rd 2013).
4) Data calculated in relation to the value of the RESPECT Index at the end of its first trading day (November 19th 2009).
5) Relative to the issue price of PLN 2.98, PGNiG shares yielded a rate of return of 111%.

The funds holding the largest equity interests in PGNiG were those managing the largest portfolios of future pensions, that is Nationale-Nederlanden, AVIVA and PZU Złota Jesień. The share of open-end pension funds in the PGNiG shareholder base rose significantly from the IPO in 2005, when it accounted for 3.5% of the share capital (valued at PLN 711m). Pension funds are typically long-term investors whose equity portfolios are characterised by low turnover, especially with respect to large dividend-paying companies, such as PGNiG. They have a stabilising effect on the Company’s shareholding structure, while limiting its free float, which can translate into lower trading volumes. In the case of PGNiG shares, the daily trading volume averaged PLN 21.8m in 2017, down by PLN 3.7m compared to 2016.